There are moments when a statistic is so stark that it demands our attention. This is one of them.
Almost one million young people aged 16-24 in the UK are now not in education, employment or training.
One in every eight young people.
The highest figure in more than a decade and, according to Alan Milburn’s review into Young People and Work, a number that could rise to 1.25 million within five years if nothing changes. The economic cost is estimated at £125 billion every year. Pause on that figure for a moment and let that sink in.
£125 billion.
That’s more than the UK spends annually on education. Yet while the financial impact is eye watering, the real cost is borne by young people themselves. Behind every statistic is a young person whose confidence has eroded, whose opportunities have depleted and whose future has become harder to navigate. For those of us working in skills, education and apprenticeships, however, the most frustrating part is that none of this comes as a surprise!
At ACE Training, we have spent more than 20 years working alongside young people, employers and communities. For two decades we have been championing practical skills, vocational learning, employer engagement and early intervention. We have seen first-hand what happens when young people are given the right opportunities and equally, what happens when they are not. The Milburn Review doesn’t expose a new problem. It confirms what many training providers, employers and educators have known for years. The system designed to help young people transition into work is no longer fit for purpose.
The Milburn report describes a fragmented landscape where schools are judged largely on attainment rather than destinations, careers guidance is inconsistent, work experience is too often treated as an afterthought and pathways into skilled employment have become increasingly complex. In many respects, the post-16 system has become confused, fragmented and too often designed around institutional convenience rather than the needs of learners or employers. Young people are expected to navigate an increasingly complex landscape of qualifications, funding rules and progression routes, while employers frequently struggle to understand where they fit into the system. The result is a disconnect that serves neither group particularly well and makes successful transitions into work far more difficult than they should be.
Most concerning of all, it highlights that we often know who is at risk of becoming NEET long before they reach 16. Children who are not ‘school ready’ at age five are almost three times more likely to become NEET later in life. Persistent absence, poor attainment, SEND needs, family adversity and disengagement from learning are all recognised risk factors. These warning signs are seen, recorded and measured. Yet too often they are not acted upon. Instead of preventing disengagement, we wait until young people have already fallen through the gaps. This is why the conversation around careers education matters so much. One of the most striking findings in the wider discussion around the report is that almost half of UK teenagers are uncertain about their future career options. In less than a decade, confidence in career direction among young people has almost halved. That should concern every one of us. If young people cannot see where education is leading, why would we expect them to remain engaged with it?
At ACE we firmly believe that careers education should not begin when young people are preparing to leave school. By then, many attitudes towards learning, work and aspiration have already been formed. Young people need the relevant exposure to employers, workplaces and career opportunities much earlier. They need to understand not only what jobs exist but why they matter. They need to see people who are just like themselves succeeding in those careers. They need practical experiences that connect learning with purpose. Most importantly, they need to understand that success is not defined by a single academic pathway. Yet for decades, vocational education has often been treated as the alternative second rate option rather than an equally valuable route to success. The irony is that this has happened at the very moment employers have been warning about skills shortages across some of the country’s most important industries such as construction, engineering, infrastructure and green technologies. Businesses are struggling to recruit the skilled workforce they need, while at the same time almost one million young people remain disconnected from education and employment. This is where apprenticeships must play a much bigger role in the solution. Too often discussions about skills policy overlook the organisations delivering the majority of apprenticeship provision. Independent Training Providers such as ACE deliver around 70% of apprenticeships, yet their contribution is frequently absent from national reviews and policy conversations.
This is an uncomfortable conversation that policymakers can no longer afford to ignore. Independent Training Providers and Further Education colleges are often expected to deliver similar outcomes for learners and employers, yet they operate within very different funding and support structures. While both play critical roles within the skills system, the current landscape can create an uneven playing field, with independent providers frequently delivering apprenticeship and vocational programmes without access to the wider financial support and infrastructure available elsewhere in the sector. This is not about creating division between colleges and independent providers. Both have an essential role to play. However, if government is serious about expanding opportunities for young people and tackling skills shortages, it must ensure that funding and policy frameworks recognise and support all high quality providers fairly. It is an issue that deserves greater attention from the Department for Education because a stronger, more balanced skills system ultimately benefits learners, employers and local communities alike. If we are serious about tackling youth unemployment and skills shortages simultaneously, apprenticeships must be viewed not as a peripheral programme but as a central part of the answer.
This isn’t simply a skills gap. It’s an opportunity gap.
As AI continues to reshape the labour market, that gap risks becoming even wider. Much of the conversation around AI focuses on the jobs it may replace. Far less attention is given to the careers it cannot. AI won’t build the homes the UK desperately needs. It won’t install heat pumps or solar panels. It won’t lay bricks, maintain infrastructure, fit kitchens or carry out the practical skilled work that keeps communities functioning and economies growing. The future will still need tradespeople, technicians, engineers and skilled professionals. In fact, many of these occupations are likely to become even more important as the country tackles housing shortages, net zero targets and infrastructure demands. Yet apprenticeship starts among young people have fallen significantly over the last decade, and entry-level opportunities have become harder to access. There is growing recognition of this challenge. Responding to the Milburn Review, the CIPD called for bolder action on apprenticeships, including an apprenticeship guarantee for every 16 to 24-year-old. It is a proposal that deserves serious consideration. At a time when too many young people are struggling to access routes into employment, expanding apprenticeship opportunities would provide a practical bridge between education and work while helping employers address critical skills shortages. The first rung of the career ladder is disappearing for too many young people and Milburn’s report rightly points out that we have spent years treating this as a ‘supply side’ problem.
The assumption has been that if we improve employability, qualifications and job seeking support, young people will naturally find work. But what happens when the labour market itself is no longer creating enough accessible entry points? What happens when recruitment becomes automated and impersonal? What happens when employers are expected to take on greater pastoral responsibilities without adequate support? The answer is what we are seeing today. A growing disconnect between education and employment. A generation struggling to make the transition into work. And a system that often rewards institutional performance rather than successful outcomes for young people. This is why ACE Training has always believed that apprenticeships and vocational learning are about much more than qualifications. They are about participation. They are about confidence. They are about belonging. They are about giving young people a reason to believe there is a future worth investing in.
We urgently need to broaden the conversation beyond simply counting apprenticeship starts and begin focusing on who creates, supports and sustains these opportunities. Successful apprenticeships depend on employers willing to invest, training providers capable of delivering high-quality learning, schools that promote vocational routes positively and local partnerships that help young people access opportunities. The quality and availability of apprenticeships are shaped by the strength of this entire ecosystem. Every year we see young people arrive through our doors who have been told, directly or indirectly, that traditional education isn’t for them. Many simply need a different environment, a practical set up and an employer willing to give them a chance. When that happens, something incredible occurs.
Confidence grows. Skills develop. Ambition returns.
The young person who was labelled disengaged begins to thrive. That is why the answer to this crisis will not be found in another short term initiative or another layer of bureaucracy. It requires a fundamental shift in how we think about participation. We need careers education that starts earlier. We need stronger partnerships between schools and employers. We need greater recognition of vocational and technical routes. We need funding systems that reward meaningful outcomes, not simply enrolment and retention. And we need policymakers to recognise what many employers and training providers have understood for years which simply put is that helping young people successfully transition into work is not a peripheral issue. It is one of the defining economic and social challenges of our time. There is another important point that the review brings into focus which is that government cannot solve this crisis alone. Employers, schools, colleges, independent training providers, local authorities, charities, families and young people themselves all have a role to play. But only government can create the conditions that allow all these efforts to work together as one joined up system. A system that increases opportunities for every young person to learn or earn, and ensures that no one is penalised and left behind because of where they started.
Because the reality is simple. We cannot continue talking about productivity, growth and skills shortages while allowing the potential of one million young people to go untapped. The cost is already £125 billion a year. The cost to the next generation is immeasurable.
The question is no longer whether we can afford to act. It is whether we can afford not to.
